The 2024 Somaliland presidential election, held on November 13, 2024, was a significant turning point for the country’s political landscape. As the region continues to push for international recognition, the election became a case study in the power of social media marketing and Paid advertising. President Muse Bihi Abdi of the Kulmiye Party, the incumbent, faced strong opposition from Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Irro” of the Waddani Party and Faysal Ali Warabe of the UCID Party. The election results would not only decide the next president but also highlight the challenges of relying too heavily on flawed digital marketing strategies.
While the region remains heavily reliant on traditional campaign methods, particularly rallies and grassroots mobilization, the election demonstrated that digital marketing is beginning to carve out its place in political strategies. Somaliland stands out as the only region to have successfully implemented a one-person, one-vote system. As political social media campaigns continue to gain momentum, Somaliland’s usage of these platforms is set to outpace that of its counterparts. Meanwhile, Puntland is transitioning to the same electoral system, beginning with local government elections and planning to extend it to the presidential elections in the future.
Though still in its infancy in Somaliland, the rise of digital marketing campaigns reflects broader global trends. It’s a small but notable step toward modernizing communication, hinting at how future elections and other campaigns in the region might evolve. For businesses, NGOs, and institutions, this shift offers valuable insights into leveraging digital marketing services, such as those provided by Vividscope, to build meaningful connections with their audiences.
Introduction: Political Landscape and the Role of Digital Campaigning
As the election approached, President Bihi’s Kulmiye Party invested heavily in social media campaigns to influence voters. The growing role of digital marketing in Somaliland’s political landscape sparked significant debate over its effectiveness and ethical implications in shaping election results. This article delves into the strategies employed by the Kulmiye Party, the challenges they encountered, and the eventual failure of their approach despite substantial spending on digital ads. The outcome offers valuable insights for future political campaigns, underscoring the critical importance of authenticity, transparency, and well-targeted messaging.
Background: Election Context and Key Candidates
The 2024 presidential election in Somaliland represented the fourth direct election since the adoption of the one-person, one-vote system. Initially planned for 2022, the election faced two delays—first to July 2023 and then to November 2024—stemming from ongoing disputes between the government and opposition parties. These delays were compounded by unrest, especially in the Sool region, which ultimately contributed to the ongoing Las Anod conflict, complicating the electoral process.
As the election drew closer, tensions grew between the Somaliland regional government and the federal government of Somalia, particularly following President Bihi’s signing of a controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in January 2024. This agreement intensified regional tensions, drawing criticism from Somalia and its allies and exacerbating political divisions across the region.
Candidates and Campaigns
Three main candidates competed for the presidency:
- Muse Bihi Abdi (Kulmiye Party) – the incumbent, seeking a second and final term.
- Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Cirro” (Waddani Party) – the main opposition leader, aiming for change after 14 years of Kulmiye rule.
- Faysal Ali Warabe (UCID Party) – the longest-serving candidate in Somaliland’s history, having run in all direct presidential elections since 2003.
President Bihi ran alongside a new running mate, Minister of Commerce Mohamoud Hassan Saajin, while Cirro was supported by Mohamed Ali Abdi. The election was a high-stakes affair, with pressing issues such as economic instability, food security, youth unemployment, and the international recognition of Somaliland dominating the political discourse.
Results: A Landslide Victory for the Waddani Party
The results, announced on November 19, 2024, shocked many political analysts. Despite spending nearly three times as much on social media advertising as their competitors, the Kulmiye Party lost to the Waddani Party in a landslide victory. Here are the official results:
- Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Waddani Party): 407,908 votes (63.92%)
- Muse Bihi Abdi (Kulmiye Party): 225,519 votes (35.34%)
- Faysal Ali Warabe (UCID Party): 4,699 votes (0.74%)
According to Somaliland National Electoral Commission (SLNEC), Out of 637,826 valid votes cast, the total turnout was 52.8% of the registered voters, with 1,227,048 eligible citizens. The outcome marked a historic shift in Somaliland’s political landscape, as Waddani emerged victorious for the first time in 14 years, signaling a significant change after President Bihi’s term.
The Growing Influence of Social Media in Political Campaigns
Social media is gradually transforming the way political campaigns are conducted, offering a direct and dynamic way for candidates to engage with voters. While traditional methods like rallies and public speeches remain dominant, platforms like Facebook and Twitter are increasingly being used to amplify political messages, particularly in regions like Somaliland. During the 2024 presidential elections, social media played a pivotal, albeit supplementary, role. Candidates and their supporters leveraged these platforms to share their visions, counter opponents, and mobilize voters. Although still in its infancy compared to the overwhelming reliance on in-person campaigning, the rise of digital tools in Somaliland’s political landscape signals a shift that could redefine future elections, blending grassroots engagement with the power of digital reach.
A Look at the Campaigns: Different Approaches, Different Outcomes
Kulmiye Party’s Social Media Strategy
The Kulmiye Party adopted an aggressive and multi-layered approach to their social media campaign. Instead of relying solely on official pages, they leveraged several seemingly disconnected pages—such as Somaliland’s Brave Guardians, Muuqaalada Somaliland, Biixi Story, and the official Kulmiye Party page. Each of these pages had a distinct theme:
1. Somaliland’s Brave Guardians
This page played a central role in the Kulmiye Party’s fear-mongering strategy. Its content primarily revolved around creating a narrative that positioned the Waddani Party and its leaders as threats to Somaliland’s sovereignty and independence. The page was designed to appeal to Somaliland’s nationalistic sentiments and was heavily used for negative campaigning.
- Key Messaging: The page frequently posted about potential risks to Somaliland’s statehood, framing Waddani as an internal destabilizer and a puppet of foreign forces, particularly the Somali federal government.
- Content Format: It used a combination of graphics and videos that often depicted exaggerated portrayals of instability or fears of reunification with Somalia.
- Targeting: The posts were strategically targeted at Facebook users who were sympathetic to Somaliland’s cause of independence or wary of any government seen as weakening that cause.
- Engagement Tactics: Calls to action encouraged followers to share their posts to alert others about the supposed threats posed by the opposition. It also posted warnings about the alleged “threats” of leadership under Waddani, asking voters to “protect Somaliland’s future.”
2. Muuqaalada Somaliland
This page was another pillar of the Kulmiye Party’s negative campaigning, aimed specifically at undermining the opposition leader, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Cirro,” and his supporters. The content primarily revolved around attacking the integrity and character of Waddani Party members, positioning them as unsuitable for leadership.
- Key Messaging: Muuqaalada Somaliland often posted videos, memes, and news articles that tried to tarnish the reputation of Waddani leaders, especially focusing on Abdirahman Cirro’s past political affiliations and alleged ties to controversial figures.
- Content Format: The page was full of videos and graphic posts, many of which included edited footage designed to show Cirro and representative Abiib in a negative light, often exaggerating their actions to incite distrust among voters.
- Targeting: The posts were designed to appeal to more conservative voters who valued Somaliland’s independence and were fearful of the perceived risks of Waddani’s leadership.
- Engagement Tactics: Posts were designed to spark emotional responses from followers, urging them to comment on or share the posts as warnings to others. Many posts included bold accusations, prompting intense debates in the comment sections.
3. Biixi Story
This page was an official and more direct arm of the Kulmiye Party’s positive campaigning. It focused on promoting the accomplishments of President Muse Bihi Abdi’s administration and presenting him as the only leader capable of ensuring Somaliland’s continued stability and independence.
- Key Messaging: The page highlighted President Bihi’s successes, particularly in improving security, the economy, and Somaliland’s international standing. It often showcased his achievements in a highly favorable light, with posts designed to evoke pride in his leadership.
- Content Format: Biixi Story featured personal stories, interviews with supporters, testimonials from citizens praising Bihi’s leadership, and imagery of the president engaging with the public in various positive ways.
- Targeting: This page aimed to reach users who were already supportive of the incumbent president or who were unsure of the opposition. It targeted people interested in political content or who followed Somaliland’s political landscape.
- Engagement Tactics: The content encouraged users to like and share positive stories about President Bihi, reinforcing the idea that his continued leadership was essential for progress and prosperity in Somaliland.
4. Kulmiye Party Page
This page served as the official communication hub for the Kulmiye Party during the election, providing regular updates on campaign events, policy proposals, and official statements from the party. While less controversial, it worked in tandem with the other pages to promote the Kulmiye Party’s message.
- Key Messaging: The focus here was on Kulmiye’s platform, which included promises to strengthen Somaliland’s economy, improve infrastructure, and continue building the country’s international recognition. It also included content about the party’s candidates and their vision for the future.
- Content Format: This page published a variety of content, including official announcements, policy outlines, videos of public appearances, and event promotions.
- Targeting: The page targeted a broad audience, including potential voters who were already inclined toward the Kulmiye Party as well as undecided voters. It aimed to position Kulmiye as the party of progress and stability.
- Engagement Tactics: Posts included calls to action such as “Like and share if you want Somaliland to prosper” and “Tag a friend who believes in Kulmiye’s vision for the future.” These were designed to increase engagement and encourage viral sharing of Kulmiye’s political agenda.
Ad Spending and Performance
Between July and November 2024, the Kulmiye Party and its affiliated pages invested a significant $9,299 in social media advertising. Among their efforts, Somaliland’s Brave Guardians launched an impressive 126 ad campaigns, while Muqaalada Somaliland contributed with 62 campaigns during the same period. In stark contrast, the Waddani Party’s ad spend was a comparatively modest $854. Despite the Kulmiye Party’s substantial financial advantage and aggressive digital presence, their campaigns had a low bound Impression of close to 40 million.
Why the Strategy Backfired
- Oversaturation and Distrust – Kulmiye’s use of multiple pages created an impression of a coordinated propaganda effort rather than a grassroots movement. Voters, particularly younger ones, grew wary of the seemingly artificial narratives and excessive ad bombardment.
- Negative Campaigning Fatigue – While fear-mongering and attacks on opponents are common in politics, Kulmiye’s relentless focus on discrediting Waddani candidates alienated voters. By contrast, Cirro’s campaign emphasized unity and progress, which resonated with an electorate eager for change.
- Overlooking Key Demographics – The Kulmiye campaign targeted a predominantly male audience aged 23–49, neglecting the broader electorate, including women and younger voters who played a critical role in the election outcome.
- Lack of Authenticity – Cirro’s decision to use a single, transparent campaign page fostered trust and credibility. Voters appreciated his straightforward approach compared to Kulmiye’s fragmented strategy.
Post-Election Fallout: The Curious Disappearance of Key Pages
As the campaigns ended and the dust settled, two of the Kulmiye Party’s most prominent pages—Somaliland’s Brave Guardians and Muuqaalada Somaliland—vanished from Facebook. This move was particularly notable because these pages were central to the party’s strategy, accounting for more than two thirds of their ad spend.
The information about these campaigns, including detailed data on ad spend and impressions, was obtained through Facebook’s Ad Library, a transparency tool designed to archive political ads. Despite these efforts at transparency, the deletion of these pages left many unanswered questions:
- Avoiding Accountability: By removing the pages, the parties involved may have aimed to evade scrutiny over their divisive content and campaign strategies.
- Strategic Rebranding: Following their electoral loss, the Kulmiye Party may have wanted to distance itself from the more controversial aspects of its campaign.
This disappearance highlights a broader issue in the digital era of politics: how campaigns can manipulate online platforms to shape narratives, only to erase the evidence after elections are over.
Conclusion: Building a Better Digital Strategy
The 2024 Somaliland elections underscored the growing influence of digital marketing and social media campaigns in shaping public opinion. The Kulmiye Party’s approach, while ambitious, showed the risks of over-reliance on aggressive tactics without a cohesive strategy.
For organizations looking to succeed in the digital age, the lesson is clear: a professional, ethical, and well-executed digital strategy is essential.
At Vividscope, we specialize in creating tailored social media marketing and digital advertising strategies that connect with your audience. Whether you’re a business, NGO, or political campaign, we can help you build a cohesive online presence that drives results.
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