The 2024 Somaliland presidential election, held on November 13, 2024, was a significant turning point for the country’s political landscape. As the region continues to push for international recognition, the election became a case study in the power of social media marketing and Paid advertising. President Muse Bihi Abdi of the Kulmiye Party, the incumbent, faced strong opposition from Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Irro” of the Waddani Party and Faysal Ali Warabe of the UCID Party. The election results would not only decide the next president but also highlight the challenges of relying too heavily on flawed digital marketing strategies.

While the region remains heavily reliant on traditional campaign methods, particularly rallies and grassroots mobilization, the election demonstrated that digital marketing is beginning to carve out its place in political strategies. Somaliland stands out as the only region to have successfully implemented a one-person, one-vote system. As political social media campaigns continue to gain momentum, Somaliland’s usage of these platforms is set to outpace that of its counterparts. Meanwhile, Puntland is transitioning to the same electoral system, beginning with local government elections and planning to extend it to the presidential elections in the future.

Though still in its infancy in Somaliland, the rise of digital marketing campaigns reflects broader global trends. It’s a small but notable step toward modernizing communication, hinting at how future elections and other campaigns in the region might evolve. For businesses, NGOs, and institutions, this shift offers valuable insights into leveraging digital marketing services, such as those provided by Vividscope, to build meaningful connections with their audiences.

Introduction: Political Landscape and the Role of Digital Campaigning

Background: Election Context and Key Candidates

The 2024 presidential election in Somaliland represented the fourth direct election since the adoption of the one-person, one-vote system. Initially planned for 2022, the election faced two delays—first to July 2023 and then to November 2024—stemming from ongoing disputes between the government and opposition parties. These delays were compounded by unrest, especially in the Sool region, which ultimately contributed to the ongoing Las Anod conflict, complicating the electoral process.

As the election drew closer, tensions grew between the Somaliland regional government and the federal government of Somalia, particularly following President Bihi’s signing of a controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in January 2024. This agreement intensified regional tensions, drawing criticism from Somalia and its allies and exacerbating political divisions across the region.

Candidates and Campaigns

Three main candidates competed for the presidency:

1. Muse Bihi Abdi (Kulmiye Party) – the incumbent, seeking a second and final term.
2. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Cirro” (Waddani Party) – the main opposition leader, aiming for change after 14 years of Kulmiye rule.
3. Faysal Ali Warabe (UCID Party) – the longest-serving candidate in Somaliland’s history, having run in all direct presidential elections since 2003.

President Bihi ran alongside a new running mate, Minister of Commerce Mohamoud Hassan Saajin, while Cirro was supported by Mohamed Ali Abdi. The election was a high-stakes affair, with pressing issues such as economic instability, food security, youth unemployment, and the international recognition of Somaliland dominating the political discourse.

Results: A Landslide Victory for the Waddani Party

The results, announced on November 19, 2024, shocked many political analysts. Despite spending nearly three times as much on social media advertising as their competitors, the Kulmiye Party lost to the Waddani Party in a landslide victory. Here are the official results:

• Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Waddani Party): 407,908 votes (63.92%)
• Muse Bihi Abdi (Kulmiye Party): 225,519 votes (35.34%)
• Faysal Ali Warabe (UCID Party): 4,699 votes (0.74%)

According to Somaliland National Electoral Commission (SLNEC), Out of 637,826 valid votes cast, the total turnout was 52.8% of the registered voters, with 1,227,048 eligible citizens. The outcome marked a historic shift in Somaliland’s political landscape, as Waddani emerged victorious for the first time in 14 years, signaling a significant change after President Bihi’s term.

The Growing Influence of Social Media in Political Campaigns

Social media is gradually transforming the way political campaigns are conducted, offering a direct and dynamic way for candidates to engage with voters. While traditional methods like rallies and public speeches remain dominant, platforms like Facebook and Twitter are increasingly being used to amplify political messages, particularly in regions like Somaliland. During the 2024 presidential elections, social media played a pivotal, albeit supplementary, role. Candidates and their supporters leveraged these platforms to share their visions, counter opponents, and mobilize voters. Although still in its infancy compared to the overwhelming reliance on in-person campaigning, the rise of digital tools in Somaliland’s political landscape signals a shift that could redefine future elections, blending grassroots engagement with the power of digital reach.

A Look at the Campaigns: Different Approaches, Different Outcomes

Kulmiye Party’s Social Media Strategy

The Kulmiye Party adopted an aggressive and multi-layered approach to their social media campaign. Instead of relying solely on official pages, they leveraged several seemingly disconnected pages—such as Somaliland’s Brave Guardians, Muuqaalada Somaliland, Biixi Story, and the official Kulmiye Party page. Each of these pages had a distinct theme:

1. Somaliland’s Brave Guardians

This page played a central role in the Kulmiye Party’s fear-mongering strategy. Its content primarily revolved around creating a narrative that positioned the Waddani Party and its leaders as threats to Somaliland’s sovereignty and independence. The page was designed to appeal to Somaliland’s nationalistic sentiments and was heavily used for negative campaigning.

• Key Messaging: The page frequently posted about potential risks to Somaliland’s statehood, framing Waddani as an internal destabilizer and a puppet of foreign forces, particularly the Somali federal government.
• Content Format: It used a combination of graphics and videos that often depicted exaggerated portrayals of instability or fears of reunification with Somalia.
• Targeting: The posts were strategically targeted at Facebook users who were sympathetic to Somaliland’s cause of independence or wary of any government seen as weakening that cause.
• Engagement Tactics: Calls to action encouraged followers to share their posts to alert others about the supposed threats posed by the opposition. It also posted warnings about the alleged “threats” of leadership under Waddani, asking voters to “protect Somaliland’s future.”

2. Muuqaalada Somaliland

This page was another pillar of the Kulmiye Party’s negative campaigning, aimed specifically at undermining the opposition leader, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Cirro,” and his supporters. The content primarily revolved around attacking the integrity and character of Waddani Party members, positioning them as unsuitable for leadership.

• Key Messaging: Muuqaalada Somaliland often posted videos, memes, and news articles that tried to tarnish the reputation of Waddani leaders, especially focusing on Abdirahman Cirro’s past political affiliations and alleged ties to controversial figures.
• Content Format: The page was full of videos and graphic posts, many of which included edited footage designed to show Cirro and representative Abiib in a negative light, often exaggerating their actions to incite distrust among voters.
• Targeting: The posts were designed to appeal to more conservative voters who valued Somaliland’s independence and were fearful of the perceived risks of Waddani’s leadership.
• Engagement Tactics: Posts were designed to spark emotional responses from followers, urging them to comment on or share the posts as warnings to others. Many posts included bold accusations, prompting intense debates in the comment sections.

3. Biixi Story

This page was an official and more direct arm of the Kulmiye Party’s positive campaigning. It focused on promoting the accomplishments of President Muse Bihi Abdi’s administration and presenting him as the only leader capable of ensuring Somaliland’s continued stability and independence.

• Key Messaging: The page highlighted President Bihi’s successes, particularly in improving security, the economy, and Somaliland’s international standing. It often showcased his achievements in a highly favorable light, with posts designed to evoke pride in his leadership.
• Content Format: Biixi Story featured personal stories, interviews with supporters, testimonials from citizens praising Bihi’s leadership, and imagery of the president engaging with the public in various positive ways.
• Targeting: This page aimed to reach users who were already supportive of the incumbent president or who were unsure of the opposition. It targeted people interested in political content or who followed Somaliland’s political landscape.
• Engagement Tactics: The content encouraged users to like and share positive stories about President Bihi, reinforcing the idea that his continued leadership was essential for progress and prosperity in Somaliland.

4. Kulmiye Party Page

This page served as the official communication hub for the Kulmiye Party during the election, providing regular updates on campaign events, policy proposals, and official statements from the party. While less controversial, it worked in tandem with the other pages to promote the Kulmiye Party’s message.

• Key Messaging: The focus here was on Kulmiye’s platform, which included promises to strengthen Somaliland’s economy, improve infrastructure, and continue building the country’s international recognition. It also included content about the party’s candidates and their vision for the future.
• Content Format: This page published a variety of content, including official announcements, policy outlines, videos of public appearances, and event promotions.
• Targeting: The page targeted a broad audience, including potential voters who were already inclined toward the Kulmiye Party as well as undecided voters. It aimed to position Kulmiye as the party of progress and stability.
• Engagement Tactics: Posts included calls to action such as “Like and share if you want Somaliland to prosper” and “Tag a friend who believes in Kulmiye’s vision for the future.” These were designed to increase engagement and encourage viral sharing of Kulmiye’s political agenda.

Ad Spending and Performance

Between July and November 2024, the Kulmiye Party and its affiliated pages invested a significant $9,299 in social media advertising. Among their efforts, Somaliland’s Brave Guardians launched an impressive 126 ad campaigns, while Muqaalada Somaliland contributed with 62 campaigns during the same period. In stark contrast, the Waddani Party’s ad spend was a comparatively modest $854. Despite the Kulmiye Party’s substantial financial advantage and aggressive digital presence, their campaigns had a low bound Impression of close to 40 million.

Why the Strategy Backfired

1. Oversaturation and Distrust – Kulmiye’s use of multiple pages created an impression of a coordinated propaganda effort rather than a grassroots movement. Voters, particularly younger ones, grew wary of the seemingly artificial narratives and excessive ad bombardment.
2. Negative Campaigning Fatigue – While fear-mongering and attacks on opponents are common in politics, Kulmiye’s relentless focus on discrediting Waddani candidates alienated voters. By contrast, Cirro’s campaign emphasized unity and progress, which resonated with an electorate eager for change.
3. Overlooking Key Demographics – The Kulmiye campaign targeted a predominantly male audience aged 23–49, neglecting the broader electorate, including women and younger voters who played a critical role in the election outcome.
4. Lack of Authenticity – Cirro’s decision to use a single, transparent campaign page fostered trust and credibility. Voters appreciated his straightforward approach compared to Kulmiye’s fragmented strategy.

Post-Election Fallout: The Curious Disappearance of Key Pages

As the campaigns ended and the dust settled, two of the Kulmiye Party’s most prominent pages—Somaliland’s Brave Guardians and Muuqaalada Somaliland—vanished from Facebook. This move was particularly notable because these pages were central to the party’s strategy, accounting for more than two thirds of their ad spend.

The information about these campaigns, including detailed data on ad spend and impressions, was obtained through Facebook’s Ad Library, a transparency tool designed to archive political ads. Despite these efforts at transparency, the deletion of these pages left many unanswered questions:

1. Avoiding Accountability: By removing the pages, the parties involved may have aimed to evade scrutiny over their divisive content and campaign strategies.
2. Strategic Rebranding: Following their electoral loss, the Kulmiye Party may have wanted to distance itself from the more controversial aspects of its campaign.

This disappearance highlights a broader issue in the digital era of politics: how campaigns can manipulate online platforms to shape narratives, only to erase the evidence after elections are over.

Conclusion: Building a Better Digital Strategy

The 2024 Somaliland elections underscored the growing influence of digital marketing and social media campaigns in shaping public opinion. The Kulmiye Party’s approach, while ambitious, showed the risks of over-reliance on aggressive tactics without a cohesive strategy.

For organizations looking to succeed in the digital age, the lesson is clear: a professional, ethical, and well-executed digital strategy is essential.

At Vividscope, we specialize in creating tailored social media marketing and digital advertising strategies that connect with your audience. Whether you’re a business, NGO, or political campaign, we can help you build a cohesive online presence that drives results.

📌 Get started with Vividscope’s Social Media Services today! Let us help you design a winning strategy that captures attention and delivers impact. 

The post The Role of Social Media in the 2024 Somaliland Elections: A Strategy That Backfired first appeared on Vividscope.

Introduction to Somali Government Social Media Performance

In the digital age, social media serves as a crucial platform for governments to connect with their citizens, disseminate information, and foster engagement. However, many ministries in Somalia continue to struggle with achieving effective results. Recognizing this gap, Vividscope launched a comprehensive study to analyze Somali government social media performance from June 13 2024. This report presents the findings, highlighting the performance of each ministry, comparing engagement metrics, and offering actionable recommendations to enhance their digital presence. The ministries in this report are; Ministry of Education, Foreign Affairs (English & Somali Pages), Interior, Energy, and Fisheries.

Methodology

Current Social Media Landscape in Somalia

General Statistics

Social media usage in Somalia has seen significant growth, with over 2.9 million Facebook users as of May 2024. According to our research and additional screenshots, the demographics reveal the following:

Facebook Users: 2,978,700 (56.2% men, 43.8% women)

Instagram Users: 554,600 (52.7% men, 47.3% women)

LinkedIn Users: 326,600, with the majority aged between 25-34 years.

Social Media Followers of the Ministries

foundational metric in assessing social media performance is the size of a ministry’s audience, as reflected in the number of followers across platforms. While follower count alone does not guarantee engagement, it serves as an indicator of the ministry’s reach and potential influence. The five Somali government ministries analyzed in this study exhibit significant variation in their follower numbers, reflecting differences in their outreach strategies, target audiences, and public interest in their areas of responsibility.

Follower Overview

• Ministry of Education: 402,400 followers
• Ministry of Internal Affairs: 85,300 followers
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Somali): 77,900 followers
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs (English): 49,400 followers
• Ministry of Energy: 17,000 followers
• Ministry of Fisheries: 15,100 followers

Comparative Analysis on Their Facebook Followers

The Ministry of Education leads the group with an overwhelming 402,400 followers, accounting for nearly half of the total followers across all five ministries combined. This dominance suggests a high level of public interest in education-related topics, likely due to the ministry’s direct relevance to students, parents, and educators.

In stark contrast, the Ministry of Fisheries has the smallest following, with just 15,100 followers. This significant gap highlights the ministry’s niche appeal and potentially less visible social media strategy. Similarly, the Ministry of Energy, with 17,000 followers, also struggles to attract a broad audience, possibly due to its technical focus and limited public-facing initiatives.

The Ministries of Foreign Affairs (Somali and English) and Internal Affairs occupy a middle ground in follower count. The Somali version of Foreign Affairs, with 77,900 followers, outpaces its English counterpart, which has 49,400 followers. This disparity likely reflects the Somali-speaking audience’s preference for content in their native language. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, with 85,300 followers, demonstrates a relatively robust presence but still lags far behind the Ministry of Education.

Key Observations

1. Audience Size and Relevance: Ministries with broader mandates, such as education and internal affairs, attract larger followings compared to ministries with more specialized focuses, such as fisheries and energy.
2. Language and Accessibility: The higher follower count of the Somali Foreign Affairs account suggests that language plays a crucial role in audience reach. Ministries should prioritize content in languages their audiences are most comfortable with.
3. Potential for Growth: Ministries with smaller follower counts, like Fisheries and Energy, have significant room to expand their audience by adopting more engaging and relatable social media strategies.

While follower count alone does not determine social media success, it is a crucial metric for understanding the potential reach of a ministry’s communication efforts. In the next section, we delve deeper into how these ministries capitalize on their follower bases—or fail to do so—through engagement strategies and content performance.

Distribution of Content: Number of Image and Video Posts

The type of content shared by ministries plays a significant role in their ability to engage with audiences. Social media platforms typically reward variety, with videos often generating higher engagement than static image posts. Analyzing the distribution of content types across the five Somali ministries provides insights into their communication strategies and preferences.

Comparative Analysis

1. Balanced Strategy: Ministry of Education – The Ministry of Education demonstrates a nearly equal split between image posts (31) and video posts (29). This balance suggests a deliberate effort to diversify content, leveraging both static and dynamic formats to appeal to a broad audience. The success of their video content, as seen in their high engagement rates, underscores the importance of this approach.
2. Preference for Images: Foreign Affairs (Somali and English) – Both versions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs heavily favour image posts over videos. For instance, the Somali account shared 43 image posts compared to just 17 videos, while the English account posted 41 images and 19 videos. This preference for image-based content may limit their ability to capture audience attention, as videos typically perform better in terms of engagement.
3. Moderate Balance: Ministry of Fisheries – The Ministry of Fisheries posted 38 image posts and 22 video posts, showing a moderate effort to include dynamic content. However, the relatively low engagement rates suggest that the quality or relevance of the content may need improvement, rather than simply increasing video output.
4. Video-Inclusive Strategy: Ministry of Energy – The Ministry of Energy maintains a slightly better balance, with 40 image posts and 20 videos. While this indicates some awareness of the value of video content, the engagement data reveals that the ministry may need to further optimize its content strategy to resonate more effectively with its audience.

Key Observations

1. Over-reliance on Images: Ministries such as Foreign Affairs (both versions) tend to rely heavily on image posts, which may not fully exploit the engagement potential of video content.
2. Balanced Content Strategies Work: The Ministry of Education’s nearly equal distribution of image and video posts aligns with its high engagement rates, reinforcing the importance of variety in content strategies.
3. Opportunities for Improvement: Ministries like Fisheries and Energy have room to increase the quality and relevance of their video content, as this format generally drives stronger audience interaction.

By examining the content distribution strategies of these ministries, it becomes clear that ministries focusing on a mix of images and videos are better positioned to capture audience interest. This comparison highlights the need for ministries to not only diversify their content but also tailor it to their audience’s preferences and platform-specific trends.

Post Engagement Of The Ministries

A critical metric in evaluating the performance of government ministries on social media is the total engagement they receive on their posts, including likes, shares, comments, and other Views. The total engagement provides valuable insights into how effectively a ministry’s content resonates with its audience. The five ministries examined in this research exhibit notable differences in their engagement levels, reflecting the diversity in their communication strategies, the relevance of their content to the public, and the intrinsic interest in their respective fields.

Engagement overview

Breakdown of Engagement

To better understand the overall engagement metrics, we analyzed key aspects such as views, likes, comments, and shares for each ministry’s posts. This detailed breakdown highlights how different types of content perform and provides insights into the specific elements that drive public interaction. By examining these metrics, we can identify areas where each ministry excels or may need to improve to enhance overall engagement.

Analyzing Engagement Metrics of Somali Government Ministries

The Education ministry’s overwhelming lead in both total engagement (161,975) and average engagement per post (2,699) suggests a few key factors. Education is often a high-priority issue for the public, driving more interaction and interest. Additionally, educational content may be more varied and engaging, including announcements of new programs, success stories, and interactive content like quizzes or videos that can appeal to a broad audience.

In comparison, the Foreign Affairs ministries, both in English and Somali, have similar engagement levels (total around 5,930 and average around 99). This could indicate that while foreign affairs are important, they may not capture daily interest as intensely as education. Language differences also hint that the ministry’s content might be duplicated across both languages without tailoring to the unique needs of each audience.

The Internal Affairs ministry has moderate engagement (total 3,168, average 53), likely due to the nature of its content, which might be more procedural and less immediately engaging to the general public.

The Energy and Fisheries ministries have the lowest engagement (total 2,185 and 1,398, average 36 and 23, respectively). This lower engagement could be due to the specialized nature of their content, which may not resonate with the broader public as much as more universally relevant topics like education and foreign affairs.

Key Observations

1. Education Ministry Dominance: The Education ministry’s total engagement is vastly higher than any other ministry, indicating a strong public interest and effective communication strategies. Education directly impacts a wide audience including students, parents, and educators. Posts related to educational developments, exam results, and new school initiatives are inherently engaging and important.
2. Language-Specific Engagement: The nearly identical engagement for the Foreign Affairs ministry’s English and Somali accounts suggests that language may not be a significant factor in engagement levels if content is not customized for each audience.
3. Public Interest: Ministries like Energy, and Fisheries deal with areas that may not generate as much public curiosity or emotional engagement. Their content can be more niche and technical, appealing primarily to stakeholders and professionals in those fields rather than the general public.
4. Moderate Engagement: Internal Affairs shows moderate engagement, likely due to content that, while important, may not have the same broad appeal as educational topics.

Engagement rate

Engagement rate is a metric used to measure the level of interaction that content receives from an audience. It includes likes, comments, shares, and other forms of interaction that indicate audience engagement and interest. Understanding engagement rates is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of social media strategies. This analysis compares the engagement rates of five ministries against the industry standard for Facebook engagement rates.

Industry Standard for Engagement Rates

The industry standard for social media engagement rates can vary significantly depending on the platform and industry. However, general benchmarks suggest thatFor government social media accounts, the average engagement rates are:

• Instagram: 4.2%
• Facebook: 3.2%
• X (Twitter): 2.4%
• LinkedIn: 2.0%

These benchmarks are based on average performance metrics across various industries and social media platforms. For more detailed and specific benchmarks, you can refer to resources like Hootsuite’s “Average Engagement Rates for 12 Industries” report and Socialinsider’s “2024 Social Media Industry Benchmarks“.

Comparative Analysis On The Ministries’ Enagement rate

1. Education: Both video and image engagement rates are at 1.30%, which is significantly below the industry standard of 3.2%. This indicates that there is a lot of room for improvement in engaging the audience on Facebook.
2. Foreign Affairs (English): Video engagement rate is at 0.40%, and image engagement rate is at 0.20%. These are far below the industry standard of 3.2%. It suggests that the content may not be resonating with the audience, or that the target audience is not being effectively engaged.
3. Foreign Affairs (Somali): Video engagement rate is at 0.70%, and image engagement rate is at 0.30%. These rates are better than the English version but still significantly below the industry standard of 3.2%. There is a clear need for enhanced engagement strategies.
4. Fisheries: Both video and image engagement rates are at 0.30% and 0.20%, respectively. These are well below the industry standard of 3.2%, indicating that the content is not engaging the audience effectively.
5. Energy: Video engagement rate is at 0.60%, and image engagement rate is at 0.30%. These rates are below the industry standard of 3.2%, suggesting that the content could be improved to better engage the audience.
6. Internal Affairs: Both video and image engagement rates are very low at 0.20% and 0.08%, respectively. This indicates a significant need for improvement in content strategy to engage the audience effectively.

Strategies to Improve Somali Government Social Media Performance

• Polls and surveys to gather opinions and encourage participation.
• Q&A sessions to address follower inquiries directly.
• User-generated content campaigns to involve the audience in the conversation.

Conclusion: Driving Change Through Collaboration

The findings of this research highlight the urgent need for Somali ministries to reevaluate their social media strategies. By focusing on engaging content, understanding their audiences, and employing best practices from successful ministries, they can significantly improve their engagement rates. Explore how Vividscope can help ministries improve Somalia’s digital engagement. 

Vividscope is committed to helping organizations enhance their digital marketing efforts. Our training programs equip communication teams with the necessary tools to thrive in the digital landscape. As we look ahead, we plan to conduct comprehensive research every six months to track the progress of social media engagement among ministries, with the next report due in January 2025.

As we continue this journey to redefine engagement in Somalia’s governmental landscape, we invite ministries and organizations to partner with us to revolutionize Somali government social media performance. Together, we can build a more informed and connected society.Explore how Vividscope can help ministries improve Somalia’s digital engagement. View our services.

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